Join us for a guest lecture as part of the STER programme
How Safe is Safe Enough?
Risk and Uncertainty Modelling of Blast, Bullets and Bombs
Distinguished Professor Mark Stewart
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Technology Sydney
New South Wales, 2007, Australia
email: mark.stewart@uts.edu.au
Abstract
Safety is a clear priority for the design of protective structures, the storage of explosives ordnance (EO), the setting of bomb threat stand-off distances, etc. The answer to “how safe is safe enough?” needs an understanding of probability, uncertainty and risk. Key to this is also the notion of risk acceptability. The presentation will describe how probabilistic safety and hazard modelling of blast, bullets and bombs can lead to better estimates of life-safety and infrastructure damage risks. The presentation will then describe the utility of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for EO storage, weaponeering and collateral damage estimation, force protection from ballistic threats, and infrastructure damage and fatality risks from terrorist improvised explosive devices.